Trump is now caught in the oldest trap of modern warfare – believing a swift, surgical military operation will yield quick, enduring political results. The Soviets did it in Afghanistan; the US in Iraq in 2003; Putin did it in Ukraine, and is still fighting. Whatever force a military fails or succeeds in applying at the start, the people it is attacking have greater commitment to defending their lands and homes.

The White House may have rushed into this, seizing the opportunity for a decapitation strike, provided by Israeli intelligence. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has very different objectives regionally, and a long US involvement against Tehran suits his desire for an Iran in rolling collapse that is no longer a threat. But the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28 has caused as many problems as it has solved.

  • mirshafie@europe.pubEnglish
    14·
    15 hours ago

    Honestly I believe Iran would accept:

    • Full sanctions relief
    • Return to IAEA inspections
    • Pinky-promise not to attack again
    • Fake reparations program spread out over 30 years

    The alternative is:

    • The US is evicted from the Persian Gulf
    • The US fucks off from Iraq, and Iraq gets an Iran-friendly government
    • Bahrain gets regime change
    • All goods through the strait are now controlled by Iran

    The worse/better alternative is:

    • Pipelines and refineries in the Arabian nations go boom
    • All US/Israel trade through the Red Sea is blocked
    • US is starved out of Djibouti
    • Iran gets a nuclear weapon and says they’re going to “test it” on Tel Aviv unless Netanyahu sucks a donkey dick on OnlyFans

    Choose wisely, pedophile scum

    • Skyrmir@lemmy.worldEnglish
      5·
      9 hours ago

      There’s a lot darker option. US and Israel tag team the populace in a genocide, shut down Iranian oil production while protecting the rest of OPEC. Leading to massive profits for Russia, some profits for US oil companies, and massive bankruptcy in Europe while crippling their manufacturing base. Which leaves the US, Russia, and China with functioning autocratic economies that can carve up the rest of the world. And the other nuclear powers are left to dismantle their own military to feed their people.

      • mirshafie@europe.pubEnglish
        1·
        18 minutes ago

        That Europe is the big loser here is a given. Which is why Europe really should get involved, today. But I don’t think that the US is able to protect the rest of OPEC, at least not short-term. They are incredibly fragile and their infrastructure is exposed.

        I think that the point for the US is to disrupt China. So that’s the point, mess up the Middle East so that China has no reliable source of oil. Next, make a move on Taiwan. I think that China understands this and will get involved.