Israel did not have a realistic plan for regime change when it attacked Iran, multiple Israeli security sources have said, with expectations that airstrikes could lead to a popular uprising having been driven by “wishful thinking” rather than hard intelligence.
Iran has survived nearly two weeks of bombing raids and the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Trump is publicly contemplating ending the increasingly costly war.
If Iran’s new leadership keeps its grip on power, the long-term measure of the success of the conflict may hang on the fate of 440kg of enriched uranium which was buried under a mountain by US strikes last June, former and serving Israeli defence and intelligence sources said. Enough for more than 10 nuclear warheads, Iran could use it to hasten the construction of a weapon if the material remains in the country.
While I understand the hypothesis, I am not sure it is working out that way.
Although Trump is trying desperately to find a way to subvert the elections, given the decentralized State based nature of it, it’s going to take more than an external war with Iran to justify an internal canceling of the elections. The SAVE Act is an attempt at nationalizing the Elections, but while it’s moving it lacks the capacity to jump the biggest hurdle in the Senate. Any Executive attempt at nationalizing the elections has very little judicial basis, which would make it hard to hold up in court. It’s dynamic and complex, but it’s not as simple as his declaration of marshal law.
That is not to say your sentiment isn’t correct. If he can find a way, or his backers can find a way, they will try and do it.
On the second point, Trump didn’t get a 9/11 style bump. Indeed it seems to have gone almost the opposite way based on polling. Given inflation and other economic impacts, it might cause more defections before it helps him.
What it has done is push Epstein out of the US new. This too might have been part of the calculus. It is still rippling through the UK and other political systems, but the US has put it aside for now.
If trump was constrained by a system of checks and balances, sure.
But I think there’s a strong chance he “declares” them cancelled, Dem states hold them and Red states don’t…
And then we see what happens on 1/6.
Like, we can’t just expect them to play by the rules when there entire ethos is “fuck you, make me”.
Someone’s gonna have to make them… Whether thats words or actions is what we need to find out.