The Trump administration has been in active discussions with Iranian opposition groups and Kurdish leaders in Iraq about providing them with military support, the sources said.
Iranian Kurdish armed groups have thousands of forces operating along the Iraq-Iran border, primarily in Iraq’s Kurdistan region. Several of the groups have released public statements since the beginning of the war hinting at imminent action and urging Iranian military forces to defect. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been striking Kurdish groups and said on Tuesday that it targeted Kurdish forces with dozens of drones.
Opinion: I think this news is true. I will not tell anyone if this is good or bad news, as it could be both.
Most likely, the CIA has been repeating to Trump and Pentagon like a broken grammophone: “you cannot win by aerial bombardment alone”. It seems that now the CIA got authorization to make promises to Kurds, and have delivered weapons. Kurds however, most likely:
They are likely reluctant. According to the sources, they have asked for air support. The source cannot tell if support has been granted. US and Israeli strikes have certainly been above-average intense in Western Iran. An effective ground front might be the amount of pressure it would take to overwhelm Iran. Or maybe not.
Judging by the most recent speech by Reza Pahlavi, where he addresses all ethnic minorities and regional tribes and promises extensive safeguards to their identity and culture if a new Iran should form, I would estimate that a rift exists between Pahlavi’s faction (they want an intact but democratic Iran) and the Kurdish factions (50 million Kurds are waiting for an opportunity to set up Kurdistan, 10 million of them live in Iran - this could be a condensation nucleus that starts the formation of a country). Reza Pahlavi obviously cannot promise them that, so he’s willing to promise everything else.
As a note: Kurds will not declare statehood quickly at all - they know they must keep a low profile. They know Turkey will attack them if they declare statehood, Iraq will likely attack them, Syria has recently attacked them for mere ambitions of autonomy. They won’t declare anything, but may try to carve out a highly autonomous province and see what happens in practise.
However, they will fear being betrayed again for the umpteenth time, which may reduce their eagerness to stick their heads into fire.
And it won’t help the US break open the Hormuz strait, because there are no Kurds living there. They live in the western mountains. If Trump wants Hormuz, US soldiers will have to set their own feet on ground.
Excellent summary. The US has used and abused the Kurds over and over again. While they’d be crazy to not take their opportunity to establish some territorial autonomy, they’d have to be utter fools to trust the US not to stab them in the back again.
How our government has treated and backstabbed the Kurds in the last decade or so is an absolute travesty.
Win what?
Netanyahu’s approval? Doesn’t seem like there’s any plan besides that. No goals, no exit strategy, no exercises in democracy, just
1 kill all the leaders 2 ??? 3 Profit.