Obviously this is a crazy idea and noone should do it, but if a prediction market let you bet on what day someone would die, someone could insider trade the market by placing a big bet on the day they go and assassinate them. People could place bets on random days for people they don’t like to push up the value of the winning bets.
Does Kalshi and Polymarket not do this already? It’s just an “event tied financial instrument”, so it’s completely legal in the US.
I’d probably put most of my money towards something like this that actually incentivizes us to eat the rich.
I would bet you have to choose the date range and cause of death, and “murdered” is never one of those choices.