Of course we both are speculating without any proof, I am also merely speaking of my gut feeling.

I have been thinking that the rhetoric of saying Putin is weak because Prigozhin was able to momentarily rebel is kind of wishful thinking. I think weak is a pretty strong word.

If Putin is as weak as some of us think he is, Prigozhin would have continued to march towards Moscow already.

At the same time, if Putin is as strong as some of us think he is, his army would have reached Kyiv with a new regime installed already.

Hence the truth should be lying somewhere in between, for now.

I know it’s not something many people want to hear because it isn’t a polarized statement e.g. it’s not as exciting as saying Putin is super strong and can nuke everything, we better bow down to him or Ukraine is super strong and can occupy Moscow tomorrow. The reality is war is a boring and slow meat grinder. Sometimes you cannot stop it (because deaths can be remembered for a long time) and sometimes you cannot avoid it (forever appeasement is not far from escalating the situation and empowering the bully which is worse off).

When new weapons arrive on site, I expect things to change. I wish Ukraine get Crimea back.