Waqas Ahmed, Ryan Grim, and Murtaza Hussain
Oct 16, 2025

On Breaking Points yesterday, we covered the grisly massacre that unfolded this week in Pakistan, as state security services gunned down an unknown but considerable number of people marching to protest against looming normalization with Israel. The segment was controversial, with critics arguing that the group in question, the TLP, is not genuinely “pro-Palestine” but is a far-right, religious extremist organization that regularly incites and carries out violence. But we noted all that in the report.

Pakistan does not actually have a history of this sort of mass state violence, and so the military-backed government needs to normalize it if it is to become part of their weaponry in building and defending what Field Marshall Asim Munir describes privately as his end goal, “a hard state.” Authoritarian governments often target groups with the least public support first, hoping to establish a principle for how other dissent will be dealt with. In this report we document how the Pakistani military appears to be using the same tactic with the justly unpopular TLP to set the tone for how other groups may expect to be treated if they do not toe the line on their emerging Israel-Gaza policy.

  • Despite its role in undermining the rule of law in Pakistan—or, perhaps, because of it—the TLP has maintained a close relationship with the Pakistani military and the government. It is widely understood in Pakistan to be a tool of Pakistani intelligence that has been used to incite protests that could serve various domestic political purposes. Only when the group turned critical of the state’s emerging policy towards Palestine did the security services lash out.

    The crackdown has elicited little sympathy from many in Pakistani civil society who had justifiably opposed the TLP for its attacks on minorities and enforcement of barbaric blasphemy punishments. But the military turning on one of its own closely-aligned organizations over the subject of normalization with Israel sends a strong message about what could happen to other sectors of society that publicly oppose the widely unpopular move.

    Up until October 2025, the TLP had only called for a few small demonstrations in support of Gaza. In early October, it appeared that Pakistan was beginning to play a role in the Gaza ceasefire when the prime minister tweeted in support of Trump’s ceasefire plan as one of the “Muslim countries” supporting the deal. Rumors started circulating that Pakistan would be normalizing ties with Israel. On Friday, after the ceasefire was signed and Sharif traveled to Trump’s Egypt summit, Rizvi announced his plans to march towards the U.S. embassy in Islamabad during his prayer sermon.

    Over the weekend, thousands of TLP members gathered from various areas of Punjab and started making their way up on the Grand Trunk Road towards Islamabad. On the outskirts of Lahore, thousands of protestors faced stiff resistance from the police, who fired at the protestors with tear gas.

    But it was Pakistan’s support for Trump’s Gaza deal that threatened domestic stability most significantly.

    RIght, so you can hang someone for blasphemy, but can’t vouch for the Falastinis, in Pakistan?