None. The blockade is mostly enforced by the insurers, and the 5 years lead time to buy a new boat. All Iran has to do is fire the odd drone/missiles every once in a while and no ship owner will risk it

I think the argument is not so much for price increases (which we have now) but for the supply restrictions and destruction taking place. First consider that every month that Hormuz remains closed, the world loses about 2% of the yearly supply of oil and gas. Then take into account the long transition of the boats and the damage to wells and refineries means there will be scarcity. Heck, in some Asian countries that is already the case. And the scarcities will be global.

That is already baked into the world economy, just not factored onto the markets.

20! Wow… I get from close to 40 on my Toyota auris most weeks. And that’s mostly urban driving