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Cake day: June 13th, 2024

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  • Elimination of AoR leadership was absolutely a strategic goal for Israel.

    I see, but was it a logical goal? Seems like a whack a mole situation that does nothing but create martyrs.

    That said, looking over the history of all the wars and intifadas in the region, I’m not sure I can point to any that didn’t weaken the Palestinian position while strengthening the Israeli one.

    I’d say the first Intifada did a lot for Palestinians (until Netanyahu destroyed the Oslo Accords, anyway), but that aside: You’re looking at this too much like a conventional conflict between two sides where the stronger wins. I mean, that’s not completely inaccurate, but you’re forgetting that Israel can only do all this because it has an absolutely vital lifeline in its relationship with the West. Remove that and the whole thing will come apart. The days where Israel singlehandedly dominated the region like in 1949 and 1967 (with Western intelligence, but that aside) are gone; now it’s all about their relationship with the West. And in that West, you have the majority of people against continuing that relationship. And what’s more, that majority is leaning towards younger people who will grow up and raise their kids with their image of Israel framed by their actions in the past year. Politicians are finding it hard to publicly associate with Israel, with Biden being rightly considered a fucking buffoon for doing so. You have large swathes of people opposing Israeli actions enough it’s considered one of the Harris campaign largest hurdles. As you said, Palestine didn’t directly gain much (they did gain a massive rise in support for BDS, for example, so not nothing), but Israel lost a lot and it’s only going to lose more as time goes on and the effects of their current actions cement themselves in Western collective consciousness. Israel gained the upper hand in this conflict by gaining Western support, and they’ll lose it by losing Western support. This trend has been progressing for the past 20 or so years, but Israeli actions post October 7th accelerated it significantly.


  • that’s far more the result of Israel’s actions than anything the AoR has done.

    I mean it was Hamas fighting until this October, and I don’t think anyone was expecting Hamas to beat Israel in a straight fight. Hezbollah will probably do better in a defensive war, but even then they won’t deal the kind of serious damage you’re expecting, and that was never the point.

    You talk about Israel’s international reputation tanking like it’s a minor occurence, but the change in Western public opinion over the past year is big. Expect a lot of change in Israeli-Western relations in the next 20 years as the next generation gains more power in politics and the older generations more likely to support Israel die off.



  • I mean Israel isn’t accomplishing their strategix goals either, because they don’t really have any except genocide. There’s a reason anyone with half a brain is calling this war a massive failure for Israel on multiple fronts.

    but at the same time I’m failing to see what benefits October 7th has netted for anyone besides Bibi getting casus belli.

    It netted Palestinians more international support than the past 20 years combined. Israel is winning on the ground, but historians will point to October 7th and the resulting Gaza genocide as the beginning of the end for Israel.