I’m almost positive Trump wins with how close all the swing states are now and how he’s improving in polling (what the actual fuck people?!) the closer we get to the election.
I’m also almost positive we will not know for sure on election night as I absolutely expect R controlled states to drag their feet and declare “irregularities” that they need to investigate if they don’t like the way things are going.
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/08/28/key-things-to-know-about-us-election-polling-in-2024/
According to some of the information in here they seem to be claiming we’re still overestimating Dem performance in presidential elections, but that midterm elections where Trump isn’t on the ballot thing are more accurate. :(