This is long, even for Ed. But you have to admire the legwork.
One time, a good friend of mine told me that the more I learned about finance, the more pissed off I’d get.
He was right.
There is an echoing melancholy to this era, as we watch the end of Silicon Valley’s hypergrowth era, the horrifying result of 15+ years of steering the tech industry away from solving actual problems in pursuit of eternal growth. Everything is more expensive, and every tech product has gotten worse, all so that every company can “do AI,” whatever the fuck that means.
We are watching one of the greatest wastes of money in history, all as people are told that there “just isn’t the money” to build things like housing, or provide Americans with universal healthcare, or better schools, or create the means for the average person to accumulate wealth. The money does exist, it just exists for those who want to gamble — private equity firms, “business development companies” that exist to give money to other companies, venture capitalists, and banks that are getting desperate and need an overnight shot of capital from the Federal Reserve’s Overnight Repurchase Facility or Discount Window, two worrying indicators of bank stress I’ll get into later.
Capitalism gonna Capitalism.
This could have been written about the War on Terror.
I’m not sure why he thinks morality is a factor in market movement. You’ll not find the stock market negatively reacting to money being spent on genocide in the Middle East or murders in the Caribbean, or to Palantir expanding into a mass-surveillance apparatus either.
Yes, market collapses are actually loved by large wealth holders, because unless the entire currency itself collapses, the people with the most currency are the ones best-positioned to benefit from the collapse. Investors will ride the economy off a cliff so they can salvage the scrap at the bottom. Sam Altman literally opined about ‘redefining’ the social contract when AI collapses the economy in his White House presser.
Because major news, analysis firms, and banks are all owned by the oligarchy, and no one is being punished for using that power to manipulate the market. They know that if they’re a big firm and they say, “this stock is amazing!” it will go up, and since they own that stock, they get richer.
It’s sad to me that Ed lived through 2008 and still thinks there will be accountability in this system. At some point you have to accept that the purpose of a system is what the system does. Our system cyclically collapses, economically, in order to enrich billionaires. It happened during the DotCom bubble, it happened in 2008, and it happened during COVID, and that’s just in my short lifespan.
I really don’t think you are. You haven’t even begun to reach the bare minimum level of disdain and disgust-inducing realism one should have about capitalism, nevermind anything being remotely close to pearl-clutching.
One thing Ed does is use my cadence, so it comes across as very natural. It’s kinda like how dogs sniff each other and feel comfortable.
Yeah, a good writer will reduce things to this size of a sentence. Now, this requires skill … three random monosyllabic words and a period gets you nowhere. It’s a bit like comedy in that the setup is required for the punchline.
Yeah, it’s very well written and ‘easy to read’. I’ve seen his posts a couple of times on HackerNews, but I don’t think I ever read a long form blog post of his before. This was really good (even if I think a little naive).
Look: I’m not going to claim I agree with him on everything. Though there are a satisfying number of "fuck"s.
But he does research so I don’t have to, and I enjoy that.
Or possibly the “war on drugs” in the 80s, or the war on communism before that.
History doesn’t repeat but it rhymes.