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  • Sordid@kbin.social
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    1 year ago

    Both! Critically, the contents of box B depend on the machine’s prediction, not on whether it was correct or not (i.e. not on your subsequent choice). So it’s effectively a 50/50 coin toss and irrelevant to the decision-making process. Let’s break down the possibilities:

    Machine predicts I take B only, box B contains $1B:

    • I take B only - I get $1B.
    • I take both - I get $1.001B

    Machine predicts I take both, box B is empty:

    • I take B only - I get nothing.
    • I take both - I get $1M.

    Regardless of what the machine predicts, taking both boxes produces a better result than taking only B. The question can be restated as “Do you take $1M plus a chance to win $1B or would you prefer $0 plus the same chance to win $1B?”, in which case the answer becomes intuitively obvious.