Just wait until we bomb tomorrow to cover the spread on oil futures for these oligarchs. Nothing about this war feels real in terms of motives.
Oil and gas prices fell sharply on Friday after Iran said the strait of Hormuz was open to commercial shipping, potentially clearing the way for tankers holding millions of barrels of oil and gas to reach the global market.
Iran’s foreign minister said vessels would be free to transit the strait of Hormuz for the duration of the 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, which was struck on Thursday.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell more than 10% to $88.8 a barrel. That is well below a peak of $119 last month, but still much higher than the $72 before the war.
Donald Trump later said the US naval blockade on Iran’s use of the strait would remain in full force until Washington had struck a deal with Tehran. He said the process “should go very quickly” because “most of the points are already negotiated”.
It’s shocking that the market doesn’t factor in Israel breaking the ceasefire and Iran blocking the flow again.
If you think that isn’t factored in, you aren’t paying attention to how traders work.
I’ve been watching the market closely for years and years. I don’t think there is much thought that goes into it.
Before the crisis, more than 130 ships a day travelled through the strait, but this has reduced to a trickle under threats from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
Feels like one other party might also be responsible for blockading the Strait. I can’t quite put my finger on which, though.
The benchmark European gas contract fell by about fell by about…
Lol.
I think Trump himself could largely cover the gas shortage if he were able to take his diaper off.
The Hill is reporting that Iran is saying the Strait “will close again”.
Edit: other sources are saying essentially “… if the US blockade continues”.
Edit 2: And now it’s closed again.
